You can expect to see 3D-compatible televisions (both LCD- and plasma-based), as well as 3D-compatible Blu-ray disc players, starting to stream in from the top manufacturers around May and June. New 3D-cable and 3D-satellite TV channels will start up around the same time with an emphasis on sports (ESPN), nature documentaries (Discovery), and premium pay-per-view content (DirecTV). Blu-ray discs that are 3D-compatible will trickle in through the second half of the year, led by recent 3D theatrical releases such as Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (slated for “summer”) and A Christmas Carol (fourth quarter).
How will the 3D home experience measure up with seeing Avatar in 3D at a movie theater? James Cameron has been pushing for theaters to adopt digital projection and 3D for almost a decade, and has been thinking about how to use the new medium creatively even longer, so expect the quality of other 3D content to be uneven at best. Sports, theatrical movies, and games will best show off the technology, but also expect a flood of quickly produced 3D material that may induce headaches and nausea, quite literally.
Samsung, Sony, and Toshiba will include a 2D-to-3D conversion feature with their 3D TVs. It provides real-time conversion of broadcasts, DVDs, home movies, or any other non-3D video you can route through the television. Samsung demoed this feature at CES with some sports video clips, and it wasn’t all that impressive. The company rep I spoke with didn’t know what criteria was being used (such as contrast and/or motion) to distinguish one focal plane from another.
How much more will the 3D TVs cost over traditional 2D TVs? The premium could be $200-$300 initially. Within a year or two, the gap will probably narrow to next to nothing, as all televisions above a moderate price point become 3D compatible.
Will 3D ever become popular enough that we would want to wear the funny glasses for the majority of programs? No one knows for sure. And glasses-free 3D TVs aren’t likely to be technologically or economically feasible anytime soon, though there are some promising prototypes.